Juventud vs Racing Montevideo: model vs market
| Source | Juventud | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 39% | 24% |
| Market | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Published | 36% | 32% | 31% |
| Edge | +1% | +9% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventud, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 2.58 | 2.50 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.02 | 2.98 | -0.04 |
| Racing Montevideo | 2.70 | 2.68 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventud and Racing Montevideo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.48
- Attack rating (Juventud / Racing Montevideo)
- 0.83 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Juventud / Racing Montevideo)
- 0.77 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventud goals. Columns: Racing Montevideo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 28%
- No goals (0–0)
- 24%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventud vs Racing Montevideo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Racing Montevideo | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28% | 3.59 |
| No | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventud or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Montevideo) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventud win by 2+ | 13% | 7.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juventud and Racing Montevideo recent form
Juventud
1W 4D 1L
Racing Montevideo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventud at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventud at home only, Racing Montevideo away only.
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Juventud 2 · draws 0 · Racing Montevideo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Racing Montevideo | 2-1 | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-08 | Juventud | 2-1 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-19 | Juventud | 1-0 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
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