Cerro Largo vs Albion FC: model vs market
| Source | Cerro Largo | Draw | Albion FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.02.
- The market prices Cerro Largo below the model: +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cerro Largo vs Albion FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cerro Largo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 2.40 | 2.37 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Albion FC | 2.85 | 2.82 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cerro Largo and Albion FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Cerro Largo / Albion FC)
- 0.73 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Cerro Largo / Albion FC)
- 1.00 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerro Largo vs Albion FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerro Largo goals. Columns: Albion FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerro Largo vs Albion FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerro Largo vs Albion FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 39% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Albion FC | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerro Largo or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Albion FC) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro Largo win by 2+ | 22% | 4.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cerro Largo and Albion FC recent form
Cerro Largo
0W 3D 3L
Albion FC
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerro Largo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
Albion FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerro Largo at home only, Albion FC away only.
Cerro Largo vs Albion FC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cerro Largo 0 · draws 1 · Albion FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Albion FC | 2-2 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
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