Central Espanol vs Club Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Central Espanol | Draw | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 26% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 13% | 26% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Central Espanol and Club Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Central Espanol / Club Nacional)
- 0.55 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Central Espanol / Club Nacional)
- 1.27 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Central Espanol goals. Columns: Club Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Central Espanol vs Club Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Espanol | 13% | 7.66 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Club Nacional | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.56 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Central Espanol or draw) | 39% | 2.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Nacional) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Central Espanol and Club Nacional recent form
Central Espanol
0W 2D 4L
Club Nacional
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Central Espanol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Central Espanol at home only, Club Nacional away only.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Central Espanol 1 · draws 0 · Club Nacional 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Club Nacional | 0-1 | Central Espanol | Uruguay Primera División |
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