Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo preview
Deportivo Maldonado hosts Liverpool Montevideo with a 40% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals suggest a tight match, with Deportivo Maldonado at 1.22 and Liverpool Montevideo at 0.78. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the lower likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 33%.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if both teams manage to score, as the probability for both teams to score stands at 40%. Recent form shows Deportivo Maldonado winning three of their last six matches, while Liverpool Montevideo has two wins and two draws in their last six. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 32% | 22% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Published | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Edge | +7% | +3% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Maldonado below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Maldonado, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 2.40 | 2.35 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.05 | -0.05 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 2.81 | 2.75 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Liverpool Montevideo)
- 1.21 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Liverpool Montevideo)
- 0.59 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Maldonado goals. Columns: Liverpool Montevideo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.53 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Maldonado or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Liverpool Montevideo) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win by 2+ | 21% | 4.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo recent form
Deportivo Maldonado
4W 0D 2L
Liverpool Montevideo
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Maldonado at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.81
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Maldonado at home only, Liverpool Montevideo away only.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Maldonado 1 · draws 0 · Liverpool Montevideo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Liverpool Montevideo | 0-2 | Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguay Primera División |
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