Penarol vs Progreso: model vs market
| Source | Penarol | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Published | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penarol below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Penarol vs Progreso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 1.33 | 1.33 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.50 | -0.25 |
| Progreso | 8.25 | 7.50 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Penarol and Progreso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Penarol / Progreso)
- 1.42 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Penarol / Progreso)
- 0.65 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Penarol vs Progreso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Penarol goals. Columns: Progreso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Penarol vs Progreso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Penarol vs Progreso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 69% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Progreso | 11% | 8.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Penarol or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Progreso) | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 47% | 2.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Penarol and Progreso recent form
Penarol
5W 1D 0L
Progreso
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Penarol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-4
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Penarol at home only, Progreso away only.
Penarol vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Penarol 2 · draws 0 · Progreso 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Progreso | 0-2 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-02-01 | Progreso | 1-3 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
- Atletico Torque vs Danubio 2026-10-09
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Defensor Sporting vs Cerro 2026-10-10
- Juventud v Racing Montevideo — match page 2026-10-10
- Wanderers v Boston River — match page 2026-10-11
- Cerro Largo vs Albion FC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Central Espanol vs Club Nacional 2026-10-11