Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Defensor Sporting	Draw	Cerro
Model	37%	31%	32%
Market	51%	28%	21%
Published	47%	29%	24%
Edge	-13%	+2%	+11%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Defensor Sporting, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.80Now 1.78 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Defensor Sporting	1.80	1.78	-0.02
Draw	3.25	3.20	-0.05
Cerro	4.20	4.30	+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Defensor Sporting and Cerro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Defensor Sporting

1.13Cerro

Total expected goals: 2.36
Attack rating (Defensor Sporting / Cerro): 0.95 / 0.83
Defence rating (Defensor Sporting / Cerro): 1.28 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 9.3% 6.0% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.3% 14.4% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 2 7.2% 8.1% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 3 3.0% 3.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Defensor Sporting goals. Columns: Cerro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Defensor Sporting	47%	2.11
	Draw	29%	3.47
	Cerro	24%	4.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.38
	Under 2.5	58%	1.72
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.03
	No	51%	1.97
Double chance	1X (Defensor Sporting or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Cerro)	53%	1.90
Handicap -1	Defensor Sporting win by 2+	17%	5.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Defensor Sporting and Cerro recent form

Defensor Sporting 2W 1D 3L

Cerro 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Defensor Sporting at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-3-6
Win rate: 44%
Goals for / match: 0.94
Goals against / match: 1.12
Clean sheets: 6 of 16

They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cerro away

Record (W-D-L): 3-3-10
Win rate: 19%
Goals for / match: 0.75
Goals against / match: 2.06
Clean sheets: 2 of 16

They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Defensor Sporting at home only, Cerro away only.

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Defensor Sporting 3 · draws 0 · Cerro 1.

75% 0% 25%

Defensor SportingDrawsCerro

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-03	Defensor Sporting	2-1	Cerro	Uruguay Primera División
2026-04-05	Cerro	1-0	Defensor Sporting	Uruguay Primera División
2025-06-22	Defensor Sporting	2-1	Cerro	Uruguay Primera División
2025-04-14	Defensor Sporting	3-2	Cerro	Uruguay Primera División

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Prediction snapshot Defensor Sporting to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Defensor Sporting