Universidad de Chile vs Nublense: model vs market
| Source | Universidad de Chile | Draw | Nublense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 65% | 22% | 14% |
| Edge | +12% | -6% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universidad de Chile below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universidad de Chile, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Chile | 1.55 | 1.48 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.99 | -0.01 |
| Nublense | 5.55 | 6.10 | +0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universidad de Chile and Nublense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Universidad de Chile / Nublense)
- 1.35 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Universidad de Chile / Nublense)
- 0.82 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universidad de Chile goals. Columns: Nublense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universidad de Chile vs Nublense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Nublense | 14% | 7.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universidad de Chile or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Nublense) | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win by 2+ | 52% | 1.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universidad de Chile and Nublense recent form
Universidad de Chile
4W 0D 2L
Nublense
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universidad de Chile at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-1
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.91
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 11
- They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Nublense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universidad de Chile at home only, Nublense away only.
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Universidad de Chile 1 · draws 1 · Nublense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Nublense | 1-0 | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-07-20 | Nublense | 2-2 | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-02-15 | Universidad de Chile | 5-0 | Nublense | Chile Primera División |
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