Updated

Chile Primera División · Matchday 24

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense

· Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Santiago· Referee Cristian Garay

Full time6 – 0

Alin prediction was Universidad de Chile to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Universidad de ChileDrawNublense

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUniversidad de ChileDrawNublense
Model73%17%10%
Market62%23%15%
Published65%21%14%
Edge+3%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Universidad de Chile below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Universidad de Chile, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.55Now 1.50 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Universidad de Chile1.551.50-0.05
Draw4.004.05+0.05
Nublense5.556.00+0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Universidad de Chile and Nublense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.55Universidad de Chile
0.85Nublense
Total expected goals
3.41
Attack rating (Universidad de Chile / Nublense)
1.35 / 0.90
Defence rating (Universidad de Chile / Nublense)
0.82 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1 7.7% 7.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 10.8% 9.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.2% 7.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 4+ 10.8% 9.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Universidad de Chile goals. Columns: Nublense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Universidad de Chile vs Nublense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Universidad de Chile65%1.55
Draw21%4.68
Nublense14%7.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.96
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (Universidad de Chile or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Nublense)35%2.83
Handicap -1Universidad de Chile win by 2+52%1.91
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Universidad de Chile and Nublense recent form

Universidad de Chile 4W 0D 2L
Nublense 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Universidad de Chile at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-1
Win rate
64%
Goals for / match
1.91
Goals against / match
0.82
Clean sheets
5 of 11
  • They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Nublense away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-3
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.18
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
4 of 11
  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Universidad de Chile at home only, Nublense away only.

Expected lineups

Universidad de Chile lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 20 C. Aránguiz
  2. 3 I. Lichnovsky
  3. 7 M. Guerrero
  4. 11 E. Vargas
  5. 28 A. Arce
  6. 5 N. Ramírez
  7. 14 M. Morales
  8. 22 M. Zaldivia
  9. 23 I. Vásquez
  10. 15 T. Reinhart
  11. 25 G. Castellón

Nublense lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 15 S. Valencia
  2. 10 M. Plaza
  3. 21 L. Reyes
  4. 28 M. Rivera
  5. 5 F. Campos
  6. 14 J. Campusano
  7. 8 G. Graciani
  8. 20 I. Jeraldino
  9. 1 N. Pérez
  10. 26 E. Calderón
  11. 6 P. Calderón

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Universidad de Chile 4 · draws 3 · Nublense 3.

Universidad de ChileDrawsNublense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Nublense1-0Universidad de ChileChile Primera División
2025-07-20Nublense2-2Universidad de ChileChile Primera División
2025-02-15Universidad de Chile5-0NublenseChile Primera División
2024-11-20Universidad de Chile1-0NublenseCopa Chile
2024-11-03Nublense1-4Universidad de ChilePrimera División
2024-05-26Universidad de Chile0-0NublensePrimera División
2023-12-09Universidad de Chile3-1NublensePrimera División
2023-05-20Nublense1-1Universidad de ChilePrimera División
2022-07-17Universidad de Chile0-1NublensePrimera División
2022-02-21Nublense3-2Universidad de ChilePrimera División

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Before and after this match