Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido preview
Nublense faces Coquimbo Unido with a 32% chance of winning for Nublense compared to 40% for Coquimbo Unido. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 9% probability. Nublense has struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 6 matches, while Coquimbo Unido's form shows 2 wins in their last 6.
Both teams to score stands at 67%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 66%, indicating a strong likelihood of goals in this match. However, if Nublense can improve their recent form, the expected goals of 1.49 for Nublense and 1.93 for Coquimbo Unido suggest they could challenge for a better result.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido: model vs market
| Source | Nublense | Draw | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Coquimbo Unido below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coquimbo Unido, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nublense | 2.86 | 2.83 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.16 | +0.06 |
| Coquimbo Unido | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Nublense / Coquimbo Unido)
- 0.82 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Nublense / Coquimbo Unido)
- 1.51 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nublense goals. Columns: Coquimbo Unido goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nublense | 32% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Coquimbo Unido | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nublense or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Coquimbo Unido) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coquimbo Unido win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nublense and Coquimbo Unido recent form
Nublense
1W 0D 5L
Coquimbo Unido
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nublense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coquimbo Unido away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nublense at home only, Coquimbo Unido away only.
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nublense 0 · draws 2 · Coquimbo Unido 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Coquimbo Unido | 1-1 | Nublense | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-09-12 | Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 | Nublense | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-04-21 | Nublense | 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- A. Italiano v Huachipato — match page 2026-10-23
- D. La Serena v Concepción — match page 2026-10-24
- O'Higgins vs Cobresal 2026-10-24
- Union La Calera vs U. Catolica 2026-10-25
- Palestino vs Colo Colo — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Nublense, previous: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense prediction
- Coquimbo Unido, previous: Coquimbo Unido – Colo Colo, 2026-10-11