Union La Calera vs U. Catolica preview
In the fixture between Union La Calera and U. Catolica, the 1X2 probabilities show U. Catolica at 46%, compared to Union La Calera's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. U. Catolica's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 losses, while Union La Calera has drawn twice and lost three times in their last six matches.
The expected goals indicate Union La Calera at 1.12 and U. Catolica at 1.46. While both teams to score stands at 53% and Over 2.5 goals at 48%, the outcome could shift if Union La Calera improves their form or if U. Catolica fails to capitalize on their scoring chances. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica: model vs market
| Source | Union La Calera | Draw | U. Catolica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 48% |
| Published | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on U. Catolica, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 4.45 | 3.63 | -0.82 |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.50 | -0.13 |
| U. Catolica | 1.71 | 1.95 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union La Calera and U. Catolica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Union La Calera / U. Catolica)
- 0.69 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Union La Calera / U. Catolica)
- 1.00 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union La Calera goals. Columns: U. Catolica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union La Calera vs U. Catolica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union La Calera | 26% | 3.82 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| U. Catolica | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union La Calera or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or U. Catolica) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | U. Catolica win by 2+ | 22% | 4.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union La Calera and U. Catolica recent form
Union La Calera
1W 2D 3L
U. Catolica
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union La Calera at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
U. Catolica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-4
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union La Calera at home only, U. Catolica away only.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Union La Calera 1 · draws 1 · U. Catolica 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | U. Catolica | 1-2 | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-12-06 | U. Catolica | 2-1 | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-06-20 | Union La Calera | 1-1 | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- A. Italiano v Huachipato — match page 2026-10-23
- D. La Serena v Concepción — match page 2026-10-24
- O'Higgins vs Cobresal 2026-10-24
- Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido 2026-10-25
- Palestino vs Colo Colo — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Union La Calera, previous: Concepción v Union La Calera analysis