D. La Serena vs Concepción preview
In the fixture between D. La Serena and Concepción, both teams have a 36% chance of winning according to the 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. D. La Serena has an expected goals figure of 1.23, while Concepción sits at 1.45, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
While the model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, recent form shows D. La Serena with a record of L-L-W-W-D-W and Concepción at D-D-L-W-D-W. This could affect the outcome, as both teams have struggled for consistency.
D. La Serena vs Concepción: model vs market
| Source | D. La Serena | Draw | Concepción |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
D. La Serena vs Concepción odds movement
Median bookmaker price on D. La Serena, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. La Serena | 2.25 | 2.24 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.31 | +0.01 |
| Concepción | 2.99 | 2.93 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
D. La Serena and Concepción expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (D. La Serena / Concepción)
- 1.15 / 0.96
- Defence rating (D. La Serena / Concepción)
- 1.31 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
D. La Serena vs Concepción score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: D. La Serena goals. Columns: Concepción goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
D. La Serena vs Concepción goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for D. La Serena vs Concepción
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | D. La Serena | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Concepción | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (D. La Serena or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Concepción) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | D. La Serena win by 2+ | 13% | 7.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
D. La Serena and Concepción recent form
D. La Serena
3W 1D 2L
Concepción
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
D. La Serena at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
Concepción away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
League matches this season before kick-off: D. La Serena at home only, Concepción away only.
D. La Serena vs Concepción head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: D. La Serena 0 · draws 1 · Concepción 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Concepción | 3-3 | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- A. Italiano v Huachipato — match page 2026-10-23
- O'Higgins vs Cobresal 2026-10-24
- Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido 2026-10-25
- Union La Calera vs U. Catolica 2026-10-25
- Palestino vs Colo Colo — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- D. La Serena, previous: Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena prediction
- Concepción, previous: Concepción v Union La Calera analysis