A. Italiano vs Huachipato preview
A. Italiano faces Huachipato with a 46% chance of winning compared to Huachipato's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 12%. A. Italiano's expected goals stand at 1.38, while Huachipato's is 0.99, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score sits at 48%, suggesting Huachipato could find the net. A. Italiano's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Huachipato has 4 wins in their last 6. This could challenge the expected outcome, making the match more unpredictable.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato: model vs market
| Source | A. Italiano | Draw | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
A. Italiano vs Huachipato odds movement
Median bookmaker price on A. Italiano, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Italiano | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.40 | +0.02 |
| Huachipato | 3.38 | 3.38 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
A. Italiano and Huachipato expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (A. Italiano / Huachipato)
- 0.78 / 0.93
- Defence rating (A. Italiano / Huachipato)
- 0.93 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: A. Italiano goals. Columns: Huachipato goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for A. Italiano vs Huachipato
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Huachipato | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.06 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (A. Italiano or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Huachipato) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | A. Italiano win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
A. Italiano and Huachipato recent form
A. Italiano
2W 3D 1L
Huachipato
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
A. Italiano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-3
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Huachipato away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: A. Italiano at home only, Huachipato away only.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: A. Italiano 4 · draws 1 · Huachipato 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Huachipato | 3-2 | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-11-09 | Huachipato | 2-1 | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-10-05 | Huachipato | 4-2 | A. Italiano | Copa Chile |
| 2025-09-29 | A. Italiano | 1-0 | Huachipato | Copa Chile |
| 2025-05-26 | A. Italiano | 4-3 | Huachipato | Chile Primera División |
| 2024-10-20 | A. Italiano | 0-2 | Huachipato | Primera División |
| 2024-05-21 | Huachipato | 0-1 | A. Italiano | Primera División |
| 2023-12-08 | Huachipato | 2-0 | A. Italiano | Primera División |
| 2023-05-19 | A. Italiano | 1-0 | Huachipato | Primera División |
| 2022-07-09 | A. Italiano | 1-1 | Huachipato | Primera División |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- D. La Serena v Concepción — match page 2026-10-24
- O'Higgins vs Cobresal 2026-10-24
- Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido 2026-10-25
- Union La Calera vs U. Catolica 2026-10-25
- Palestino vs Colo Colo — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Huachipato, previous: Huachipato v O'Higgins analysis