Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache preview
In the upcoming match between Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportes Limache at 41%, while Universidad de Concepcion sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.14 for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.54 for Deportes Limache.
While the model indicates a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability for both teams to score, recent form could influence the outcome. Universidad de Concepcion has recorded four losses in their last six matches, while Deportes Limache has shown slightly better form with three wins in their last six. This disparity might affect the match dynamics and final result.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache: model vs market
| Source | Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportes Limache, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Concepcion | 2.51 | 2.65 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.57 | +0.07 |
| Deportes Limache | 2.55 | 2.36 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Universidad de Concepcion / Deportes Limache)
- 0.61 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Universidad de Concepcion / Deportes Limache)
- 1.16 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universidad de Concepcion goals. Columns: Deportes Limache goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Concepcion | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Deportes Limache | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universidad de Concepcion or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportes Limache) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Limache win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache recent form
Universidad de Concepcion
1W 1D 4L
Deportes Limache
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universidad de Concepcion at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-5
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.09
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 23 matches.
Deportes Limache away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universidad de Concepcion at home only, Deportes Limache away only.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Universidad de Concepcion 0 · draws 0 · Deportes Limache 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Deportes Limache | 3-0 | Universidad de Concepcion | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- A. Italiano v Huachipato — match page 2026-10-23
- D. La Serena v Concepción — match page 2026-10-24
- O'Higgins vs Cobresal 2026-10-24
- Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido 2026-10-25
- Union La Calera vs U. Catolica 2026-10-25
- Palestino vs Colo Colo — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Universidad de Concepcion, previous: Cobresal – Universidad de Concepcion, 2026-10-10
- Deportes Limache, previous: Deportes Limache vs Palestino: odds and pick