Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 7

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas

· Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga· Referee Jonnathan Ortiz

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Bucaramanga to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BucaramangaDrawÁguilas Doradas

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBucaramangaDrawÁguilas Doradas
Model70%18%12%
Market46%29%25%
Published52%26%21%
Edge+6%-3%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bucaramanga below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bucaramanga, 21 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.91Now 2.00 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bucaramanga1.912.00+0.09
Draw3.203.20+0.00
Águilas Doradas4.163.74-0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46Bucaramanga
0.94Águilas Doradas
Total expected goals
3.40
Attack rating (Bucaramanga / Águilas Doradas)
1.51 / 1.06
Defence rating (Bucaramanga / Águilas Doradas)
0.89 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1 7.5% 8.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 2 10.1% 9.5% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 8.3% 7.8% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 9.2% 8.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4%

Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: Águilas Doradas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bucaramanga52%1.91
Draw26%3.80
Águilas Doradas21%4.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.94
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Bucaramanga or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Águilas Doradas)48%2.09
Handicap -1Bucaramanga win by 2+49%2.05
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas recent form

Bucaramanga 4W 2D 0L
Águilas Doradas 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bucaramanga at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-7-1
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.79
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Águilas Doradas away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-6
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, Águilas Doradas away only.

Expected lineups

Bucaramanga lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 25 C. Fiermarín
  2. 80 O. Albornoz
  3. 23 C. Romaña
  4. 24 J. Ortiz
  5. 6 N. Castrillón
  6. 19 A. Gutiérrez
  7. 17 E. Batalla
  8. 22 F. Castro
  9. 21 F. Charrupí
  10. 10 F. Sambueza
  11. 27 L. Pons

Bench: M. Rea, A. Murrilo, K. Londoño, B. Caicedo, F. Salazar, D. Novoa, L. Flores, S. Velasquez, V. Cantillo

Águilas Doradas lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Soto
  2. 32 J. Mena
  3. 3 J. Ontaneda
  4. 4 A. Mosquera
  5. 26 D. Lozano
  6. 6 I. Rojas
  7. 19 F. Lozano
  8. 24 J. Ávalo
  9. 8 A. Ricaurte
  10. 16 M. Ramírez
  11. 9 A. Vásquez

Bench: J. García, Junior Alexander Noguera Machuca, Juan Hurtado, R. Márquez, J. Roa, S. Rodríguez, T. Blandon, N. Lara

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bucaramanga 4 · draws 2 · Águilas Doradas 4.

BucaramangaDrawsÁguilas Doradas
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-07Águilas Doradas2-1BucaramangaPrimera A
2025-08-25Bucaramanga4-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2025-03-08Águilas Doradas0-1BucaramangaPrimera A
2024-10-21Águilas Doradas1-3BucaramangaPrimera A
2024-03-27Bucaramanga1-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2023-08-21Bucaramanga1-1Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2023-02-25Águilas Doradas1-0BucaramangaPrimera A
2022-10-06Bucaramanga0-1Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2022-01-20Águilas Doradas1-1BucaramangaPrimera A
2021-09-20Águilas Doradas3-0BucaramangaPrimera A

Before and after this match