Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas: model vs market
| Source | Bucaramanga | Draw | Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bucaramanga, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 1.91 | 1.94 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.29 | +0.09 |
| Águilas Doradas | 4.16 | 4.05 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Bucaramanga / Águilas Doradas)
- 1.50 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Bucaramanga / Águilas Doradas)
- 0.89 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: Águilas Doradas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Águilas Doradas | 11% | 9.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bucaramanga or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Águilas Doradas) | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win by 2+ | 49% | 2.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas recent form
Bucaramanga
4W 2D 0L
Águilas Doradas
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bucaramanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, Águilas Doradas away only.
Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bucaramanga 4 · draws 2 · Águilas Doradas 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Águilas Doradas | 2-1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-08-25 | Bucaramanga | 4-0 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2025-03-08 | Águilas Doradas | 0-1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2024-10-21 | Águilas Doradas | 1-3 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2024-03-27 | Bucaramanga | 1-0 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2023-08-21 | Bucaramanga | 1-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2023-02-25 | Águilas Doradas | 1-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2022-10-06 | Bucaramanga | 0-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2022-01-20 | Águilas Doradas | 1-1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2021-09-20 | Águilas Doradas | 3-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |