Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima preview
In the upcoming match between Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima, the 1X2 probabilities show Águilas Doradas at 49%, while Deportes Tolima sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 11% chance. Águilas Doradas has an expected goals figure of 1.54 compared to Deportes Tolima's 1.00, suggesting they may have the upper hand.
However, both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating that there is a reasonable chance Deportes Tolima could find the net. Recent form also plays a role, with Águilas Doradas having a mixed record of D-W-L-L-D-L, while Deportes Tolima has struggled with L-D-D-D-D-L. This context could influence the match outcome.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima: model vs market
| Source | Águilas Doradas | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | +16% | -2% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Águilas Doradas below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.89, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Águilas Doradas, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas Doradas | 2.62 | 2.77 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.12 | -0.00 |
| Deportes Tolima | 2.62 | 2.50 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Águilas Doradas / Deportes Tolima)
- 1.06 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Águilas Doradas / Deportes Tolima)
- 1.12 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Águilas Doradas goals. Columns: Deportes Tolima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águilas Doradas | 37% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Deportes Tolima | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Águilas Doradas or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportes Tolima) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águilas Doradas win by 2+ | 26% | 3.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima recent form
Águilas Doradas
1W 3D 2L
Deportes Tolima
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Águilas Doradas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
Deportes Tolima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-7
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Águilas Doradas at home only, Deportes Tolima away only.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Águilas Doradas 3 · draws 1 · Deportes Tolima 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Deportes Tolima | 4-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2025-11-14 | Águilas Doradas | 1-2 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2025-05-25 | Deportes Tolima | 1-2 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2024-11-02 | Águilas Doradas | 0-1 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2024-04-12 | Deportes Tolima | 2-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2023-12-02 | Deportes Tolima | 0-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2023-11-18 | Águilas Doradas | 0-4 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2023-07-29 | Deportes Tolima | 1-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2023-02-06 | Águilas Doradas | 4-2 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2022-10-02 | Águilas Doradas | 1-2 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Águilas Doradas, previous: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas prediction
- Águilas Doradas, next: Junior vs Águilas Doradas: odds and pick
- Deportes Tolima, previous: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: odds and pick