Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas preview
Independiente Medellin faces Once Caldas with a 49% chance of winning compared to Once Caldas's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 1.53 for Independiente Medellin and 0.99 for Once Caldas.
While both teams to score stands at 51%, the recent form shows Independiente Medellin with L-D-L-W-D-L and Once Caldas with W-D-L-L-W-L, indicating inconsistency. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Factors like defensive errors or an unexpected surge in performance from Once Caldas could lead to a different result.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas: model vs market
| Source | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.97.
- The market prices Independiente Medellin below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente Medellin, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 1.90 | 1.95 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.39 | +0.00 |
| Once Caldas | 3.83 | 3.76 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Independiente Medellin / Once Caldas)
- 1.16 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Independiente Medellin / Once Caldas)
- 1.09 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente Medellin goals. Columns: Once Caldas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Once Caldas | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente Medellin or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Once Caldas) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win by 2+ | 28% | 3.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas recent form
Independiente Medellin
2W 2D 2L
Once Caldas
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente Medellin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-11-3
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente Medellin at home only, Once Caldas away only.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Independiente Medellin 4 · draws 4 · Once Caldas 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Once Caldas | 1-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2025-10-13 | Once Caldas | 1-5 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2025-04-20 | Independiente Medellin | 2-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2024-09-28 | Once Caldas | 0-2 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2024-03-17 | Independiente Medellin | 1-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2023-10-01 | Once Caldas | 2-2 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2023-05-11 | Independiente Medellin | 2-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2022-07-24 | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2022-02-05 | Once Caldas | 2-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2021-09-18 | Independiente Medellin | 3-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Independiente Medellin, previous: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction
- Once Caldas, previous: Millonarios vs Once Caldas: odds and pick