Millonarios vs Once Caldas: model vs market
| Source | Millonarios | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.84.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Millonarios, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 1.71 | 1.67 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.74 | +0.22 |
| Once Caldas | 4.78 | 4.75 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Millonarios and Once Caldas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Millonarios / Once Caldas)
- 1.36 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Millonarios / Once Caldas)
- 0.86 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millonarios goals. Columns: Once Caldas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millonarios vs Once Caldas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Once Caldas | 19% | 5.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millonarios or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Once Caldas) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Millonarios and Once Caldas recent form
Millonarios
3W 3D 0L
Once Caldas
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millonarios at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.81
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-11-3
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Millonarios at home only, Once Caldas away only.
Expected lineups
Millonarios lineup
Bench: S. del Castillo
Millonarios vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Millonarios 2 · draws 5 · Once Caldas 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Once Caldas | 1-4 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-10-30 | Millonarios | 0-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-06-12 | Millonarios | 2-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-06-09 | Once Caldas | 0-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-05-12 | Once Caldas | 2-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-03-06 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Millonarios | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2024-09-08 | Once Caldas | 1-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-02-28 | Millonarios | 0-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2023-08-22 | Millonarios | 2-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2023-02-26 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
Before and after this match
- Millonarios, next: Millonarios – America de Cali, 2026-11-05
- Once Caldas, next: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira prediction