Millonarios vs Once Caldas preview
In the fixture between Millonarios and Once Caldas, the 1X2 probabilities show Millonarios at 61% to win, while Once Caldas sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Millonarios has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.81 compared to Once Caldas' 0.78, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Millonarios recording D-D-W-W-D-D and Once Caldas struggling at D-L-L-W-L-L. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 48%, and both teams to score is at 46%, suggesting that while Millonarios may dominate, the match could still yield surprises.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas: model vs market
| Source | Millonarios | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 27% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.78.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Millonarios and Once Caldas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Millonarios / Once Caldas)
- 1.15 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Millonarios / Once Caldas)
- 0.87 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millonarios goals. Columns: Once Caldas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millonarios vs Once Caldas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 57% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Once Caldas | 17% | 6.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millonarios or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Once Caldas) | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Millonarios and Once Caldas recent form
Millonarios
2W 4D 0L
Once Caldas
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millonarios at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-11-3
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Millonarios at home only, Once Caldas away only.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Millonarios 1 · draws 4 · Once Caldas 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Once Caldas | 1-4 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-10-30 | Millonarios | 0-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-06-12 | Millonarios | 2-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-06-09 | Once Caldas | 0-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-05-12 | Once Caldas | 2-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-03-06 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Millonarios | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Águilas Doradas v Jaguares — match page 2026-10-03
- Deportes Tolima vs Chico 2026-10-03
- Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira 2026-10-04
- Bucaramanga v Junior — match page 2026-10-04
- Llaneros vs America de Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-05
- Independiente Medellin v Santa Fe — match page 2026-10-06
Before and after this match
- Millonarios, previous: Fortaleza FC v Millonarios analysis
- Once Caldas, previous: Once Caldas vs Llaneros: odds and pick