Millonarios vs America de Cali preview
Millonarios face America de Cali with a 49% chance of winning compared to 24% for America de Cali. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Millonarios have an expected goals figure of 1.55, while America de Cali sits at 1.17.
Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 51%. However, recent form shows Millonarios with four draws in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. America de Cali is in better form, winning four of their last five games. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Millonarios vs America de Cali: model vs market
| Source | Millonarios | Draw | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.16.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Millonarios vs America de Cali odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Millonarios, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 1.83 | 1.85 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.40 | -0.08 |
| America de Cali | 4.07 | 4.10 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Millonarios and America de Cali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Millonarios / America de Cali)
- 1.33 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Millonarios / America de Cali)
- 0.86 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millonarios vs America de Cali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millonarios goals. Columns: America de Cali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millonarios vs America de Cali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millonarios vs America de Cali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| America de Cali | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millonarios or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or America de Cali) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win by 2+ | 23% | 4.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Millonarios and America de Cali recent form
Millonarios
2W 4D 0L
America de Cali
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millonarios at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.76
- Goals against / match
- 0.65
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
America de Cali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-7
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 20 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Millonarios at home only, America de Cali away only.
Millonarios vs America de Cali head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Millonarios 4 · draws 2 · America de Cali 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | America de Cali | 3-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-10-08 | Millonarios | 2-1 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-04-17 | America de Cali | 0-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-01-19 | Millonarios | 1-1 | America de Cali | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-12 | America de Cali | 2-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-02-08 | Millonarios | 1-0 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2023-12-04 | America de Cali | 1-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-11-19 | Millonarios | 2-1 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2023-10-31 | America de Cali | 1-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-06-04 | Millonarios | 2-1 | America de Cali | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-11-01
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-11-02
- Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional 2026-11-03
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Millonarios, previous: Millonarios vs Once Caldas: odds and pick
- Millonarios, next: Deportes Tolima – Millonarios, 2026-11-08
- America de Cali, previous: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC: odds and pick
- America de Cali, next: America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali prediction