America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC preview
America de Cali faces Fortaleza FC with a 68% chance of winning, while Fortaleza has just an 11% probability. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-0, which occurs at a rate of 13%. The expected goals stand at 2.10 for America de Cali and 0.73 for Fortaleza FC, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the home side.
However, America de Cali's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Fortaleza FC has struggled, recording 5 winless games. The model also indicates a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. These factors could influence the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC: model vs market
| Source | America de Cali | Draw | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
America de Cali and Fortaleza FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (America de Cali / Fortaleza FC)
- 1.22 / 0.95
- Defence rating (America de Cali / Fortaleza FC)
- 0.78 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: America de Cali goals. Columns: Fortaleza FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 68% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Fortaleza FC | 11% | 9.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (America de Cali or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortaleza FC) | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | America de Cali win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
America de Cali and Fortaleza FC recent form
America de Cali
2W 2D 2L
Fortaleza FC
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
America de Cali at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-2
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.53
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-9-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: America de Cali at home only, Fortaleza FC away only.
America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: America de Cali 2 · draws 0 · Fortaleza FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Fortaleza FC | 1-2 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-09-13 | Fortaleza FC | 1-0 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-03-31 | America de Cali | 1-0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
- Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-27
- Chico vs Junior — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-10-28
- Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin 2026-10-29
- Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe — match page 2026-10-30
- Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares — match page 2026-10-30
- Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- America de Cali, previous: America de Cali vs Cucuta prediction
- Fortaleza FC, previous: Fortaleza FC – Deportivo Cali, 2026-10-25