Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin preview
In the match between Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin, the 1X2 probabilities show Internacional de Bogota at 48%, while Independiente Medellin stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.68 for Internacional de Bogota and 1.16 for Independiente Medellin.
Both teams to score is at 57%, and there's a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals. However, the recent form shows Internacional de Bogota with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could affect their performance. Independiente Medellin has been slightly better, winning 3 of their last 6. This discrepancy in form may lead to unexpected results.
Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin: model vs market
| Source | Internacional de Bogota | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.16.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Internacional de Bogota / Independiente Medellin)
- 1.06 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Internacional de Bogota / Independiente Medellin)
- 1.13 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Internacional de Bogota goals. Columns: Independiente Medellin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional de Bogota | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Independiente Medellin | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Internacional de Bogota or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente Medellin) | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional de Bogota win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin recent form
Internacional de Bogota
1W 3D 2L
Independiente Medellin
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Internacional de Bogota at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.61
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Independiente Medellin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Internacional de Bogota at home only, Independiente Medellin away only.
Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Internacional de Bogota 1 · draws 1 · Independiente Medellin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Independiente Medellin | 1-2 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-08-23 | Independiente Medellin | 3-1 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-03-09 | Internacional de Bogota | 0-0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
- Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-27
- Chico vs Junior — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-10-28
- America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe — match page 2026-10-30
- Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares — match page 2026-10-30
- Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Internacional de Bogota, previous: Alianza Valledupar v Internacional de Bogota analysis
- Independiente Medellin, previous: Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: odds and pick