Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe preview
Atletico Nacional has a 58% chance to win against Santa Fe, who has a 16% chance, with a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which our model predicts at 14%. Atletico Nacional's expected goals are 1.64 compared to Santa Fe's 0.74, suggesting a solid advantage for the home side.
However, there is a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and also a 43% chance for both teams to score. This indicates that while Atletico Nacional is favored, Santa Fe could still find the net. Recent form shows Atletico Nacional with mixed results, while Santa Fe has won three of their last six matches. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 27% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 27% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Santa Fe)
- 1.46 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Santa Fe)
- 0.75 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Santa Fe | 16% | 6.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Nacional or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Santa Fe) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe recent form
Atletico Nacional
3W 2D 1L
Santa Fe
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 15-3-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.44
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 18
- They have won 26 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 38 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-8-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Santa Fe away only.
Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Atletico Nacional 2 · draws 2 · Santa Fe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Santa Fe | 1-2 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-07-26 | Atletico Nacional | 1-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-06-13 | Santa Fe | 1-2 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-06-08 | Atletico Nacional | 1-2 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-02-13 | Santa Fe | 2-2 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
- Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-27
- Chico vs Junior — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-10-28
- Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin 2026-10-29
- America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares — match page 2026-10-30
- Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Atletico Nacional, previous: Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: odds and pick
- Santa Fe, previous: Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga prediction