Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional preview
In the fixture between Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional, the 1X2 probabilities show Atletico Nacional at 38% to win, while Bucaramanga sits at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, indicating a reasonable expectation for goals from both sides.
Bucaramanga's recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Atletico Nacional has been more consistent with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The expected goals are 1.28 for Bucaramanga and 1.36 for Atletico Nacional. However, if Bucaramanga can improve their recent performance, they might challenge Atletico Nacional's slight edge.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Bucaramanga | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Bucaramanga / Atletico Nacional)
- 1.17 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Bucaramanga / Atletico Nacional)
- 0.93 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: Atletico Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Atletico Nacional | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bucaramanga or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Nacional) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional recent form
Bucaramanga
2W 2D 2L
Atletico Nacional
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bucaramanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-9-1
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-0-9
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 21
- They have won 28 of their 40 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 40 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 40 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, Atletico Nacional away only.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bucaramanga 1 · draws 0 · Atletico Nacional 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Atletico Nacional | 2-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-03-29 | Bucaramanga | 2-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page 2026-10-31
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-11-01
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-11-02
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Bucaramanga, previous: Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto analysis
- Atletico Nacional, previous: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: odds and pick