Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima preview
Deportivo Pereira faces Deportes Tolima with a 24% chance of winning compared to Tolima’s 49%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.17 for Pereira and 0.70 for Tolima.
Deportivo Pereira's recent form shows 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Deportes Tolima has 6 matches without a win, including 4 losses. The model suggests a 29% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score. If Tolima can improve their attacking performance, the predicted outcome may shift.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 33% | 21% |
| Market | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| Published | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Edge | +7% | +2% | -9% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportes Tolima, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pereira | 5.00 | 5.17 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.71 | +0.01 |
| Deportes Tolima | 1.65 | 1.63 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Deportivo Pereira / Deportes Tolima)
- 0.80 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Deportivo Pereira / Deportes Tolima)
- 0.93 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Pereira goals. Columns: Deportes Tolima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pereira | 25% | 4.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Deportes Tolima | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.78 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Pereira or draw) | 52% | 1.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportes Tolima) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win by 2+ | 6% | 16.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima recent form
Deportivo Pereira
2W 3D 1L
Deportes Tolima
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Pereira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 4 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.05
- Goals against / match
- 1.26
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 19
- They have won 15 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 39 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 39 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pereira at home only, Deportes Tolima away only.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 3 · draws 3 · Deportes Tolima 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Deportes Tolima | 2-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-07-25 | Deportes Tolima | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-02-14 | Deportivo Pereira | 0-0 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2024-10-08 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2024-03-23 | Deportes Tolima | 2-1 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2023-09-06 | Deportes Tolima | 2-3 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2023-03-06 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-1 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2022-09-26 | Deportes Tolima | 1-3 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2022-05-12 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-1 | Deportes Tolima | Copa Colombia |
| 2022-04-21 | Deportes Tolima | 3-2 | Deportivo Pereira | Copa Colombia |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-11-01
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-11-02
- Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional 2026-11-03
- Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe 2026-11-04
- Millonarios vs America de Cali 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Pereira, previous: Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares analysis
- Deportivo Pereira, next: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira prediction
- Deportes Tolima, previous: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto prediction
- Deportes Tolima, next: Deportes Tolima – Millonarios, 2026-11-08