Llaneros vs Junior preview
In the fixture between Llaneros and Junior, the 1X2 probabilities show Llaneros at 37%, Junior at 34%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Llaneros, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a reasonable expectation for goals from both sides.
Llaneros' recent form is L-W-L-L-L-W, while Junior has a record of W-D-D-D-L-L. The expected goals are 1.28 for Llaneros and 1.21 for Junior, suggesting a closely contested match. However, Junior's strong head-to-head record, with 3 wins in the last 3 encounters, could challenge Llaneros' chances.
Llaneros vs Junior: model vs market
| Source | Llaneros | Draw | Junior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Llaneros and Junior expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Llaneros / Junior)
- 0.84 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Llaneros / Junior)
- 1.17 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llaneros vs Junior score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llaneros goals. Columns: Junior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llaneros vs Junior goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llaneros vs Junior
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Junior | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llaneros or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Junior) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Llaneros win by 2+ | 17% | 5.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Llaneros and Junior recent form
Llaneros
2W 0D 4L
Junior
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Llaneros at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Junior away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-9
- Win rate
- 37%
- Goals for / match
- 1.32
- Goals against / match
- 1.37
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 19
- They have won 17 of their 40 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 40 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 40 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 14 penalties (79%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Llaneros at home only, Junior away only.
Llaneros vs Junior head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Llaneros 0 · draws 0 · Junior 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Junior | 2-0 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-08-29 | Junior | 4-0 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-03-17 | Llaneros | 0-1 | Junior | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Llaneros, previous: Jaguares v Llaneros analysis
- Junior, previous: Chico vs Junior prediction