Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros preview
In the fixture between Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza Valledupar at 44%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 10%. Recent form indicates Alianza Valledupar has 2 wins from their last 6 matches, while Llaneros has only 1 win in the same period.
The expected goals are 1.50 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.13 for Llaneros, suggesting a tight contest. Although there is a 49% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score, the recent struggles of Llaneros could impact their scoring ability.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Llaneros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.13.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Valledupar, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 2.16 | 2.15 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.12 | -0.02 |
| Llaneros | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Alianza Valledupar / Llaneros)
- 0.88 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Alianza Valledupar / Llaneros)
- 1.23 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Valledupar goals. Columns: Llaneros goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Llaneros | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Valledupar or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Llaneros) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Valledupar win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros recent form
Alianza Valledupar
2W 1D 3L
Llaneros
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Valledupar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-6
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Llaneros away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-9
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Valledupar at home only, Llaneros away only.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Alianza Valledupar 2 · draws 1 · Llaneros 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Llaneros | 0-0 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2025-09-27 | Alianza Valledupar | 3-1 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-04-11 | Llaneros | 0-1 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Junior vs Cucuta 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Alianza Valledupar, previous: Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-11-01
- Llaneros, previous: Llaneros vs Junior prediction