Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto preview
In the match between Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Fe at 60%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 18%. Santa Fe has a higher expected goals figure of 1.55 compared to Deportivo Pasto's 0.57, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, Santa Fe's recent form includes two losses, which could affect their performance. Deportivo Pasto has struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, but they might surprise with their potential for both teams to score at 35%. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto: model vs market
| Source | Santa Fe | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Published | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santa Fe, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | 1.53 | 1.52 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.88 | -0.02 |
| Deportivo Pasto | 6.30 | 6.05 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Santa Fe / Deportivo Pasto)
- 1.00 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Santa Fe / Deportivo Pasto)
- 0.93 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santa Fe goals. Columns: Deportivo Pasto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 16% | 6.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santa Fe or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pasto) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto recent form
Santa Fe
4W 0D 2L
Deportivo Pasto
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-7-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 20
- They have won 16 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 39 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 39 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Pasto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-9
- Win rate
- 32%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.79
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 19
- They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Santa Fe at home only, Deportivo Pasto away only.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Santa Fe 1 · draws 2 · Deportivo Pasto 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-09-20 | Deportivo Pasto | 1-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-04-05 | Santa Fe | 1-1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
- Junior vs Cucuta 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Santa Fe, previous: Cucuta vs Santa Fe: odds and pick
- Deportivo Pasto, previous: Deportivo Pasto – Jaguares, 2026-11-03