Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin preview
Fortaleza FC faces Independiente Medellin with a 47% probability of winning compared to 27% for Independiente Medellin. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. Fortaleza FC has struggled recently with 5 matches without a win, while Independiente Medellin has lost 4 of their last 5 games.
The model suggests a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, if Fortaleza FC's recent form continues to hinder their performance, or if Independiente Medellin improves their away game, the expected outcomes could change. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin: model vs market
| Source | Fortaleza FC | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Fortaleza FC / Independiente Medellin)
- 0.85 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Fortaleza FC / Independiente Medellin)
- 1.22 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortaleza FC goals. Columns: Independiente Medellin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza FC | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Independiente Medellin | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortaleza FC or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente Medellin) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza FC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin recent form
Fortaleza FC
0W 3D 3L
Independiente Medellin
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortaleza FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.28
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 6 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Independiente Medellin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza FC at home only, Independiente Medellin away only.
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fortaleza FC 0 · draws 1 · Independiente Medellin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Independiente Medellin | 1-0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-10-17 | Independiente Medellin | 3-1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-04-27 | Fortaleza FC | 0-0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Chico v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-11-06
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Fortaleza FC, previous: Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC analysis
- Independiente Medellin, previous: Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-11-01