Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas preview
Once Caldas faces Águilas Doradas with a 43% chance of winning compared to 24% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. Once Caldas has an expected goals figure of 1.18, while Águilas Doradas sits at 0.82.
However, the match could produce different outcomes. Both teams to score stands at 40%, indicating that there is a significant chance one team may not find the net. Additionally, the recent form shows Once Caldas with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Águilas Doradas has 4 wins in the same span, suggesting they could pose a threat.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas: model vs market
| Source | Once Caldas | Draw | Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Once Caldas / Águilas Doradas)
- 0.88 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Once Caldas / Águilas Doradas)
- 0.80 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Once Caldas goals. Columns: Águilas Doradas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Águilas Doradas | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.68 |
| No | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Once Caldas or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Águilas Doradas) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Once Caldas win by 2+ | 17% | 5.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas recent form
Once Caldas
3W 3D 0L
Águilas Doradas
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Once Caldas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.63
- Goals against / match
- 1.16
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 19
- They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-7
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Once Caldas at home only, Águilas Doradas away only.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Once Caldas 1 · draws 2 · Águilas Doradas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Águilas Doradas | 2-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-08-09 | Once Caldas | 1-1 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
| 2025-02-22 | Águilas Doradas | 0-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Chico v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-11-06
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Once Caldas, previous: Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-10-28
- Águilas Doradas, previous: Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC analysis