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Primera A · Clausura - 19

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

· Estadio Cincuentenario

Alin prediction Águilas Doradas to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Águilas DoradasDrawIndependiente Medellin
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.01.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Águilas Doradas2.57 Draw3.30 Independiente Medellin2.90

Price as of

Expected return at 2.57: +2.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin preview

In the match between Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin, the 1X2 probabilities show Águilas Doradas at 40%, Independiente Medellin at 31%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Águilas Doradas has an expected goals figure of 1.46, compared to Independiente Medellin's 1.01.

While both teams to score stands at 50% and Over 2.5 goals at 45%, these figures suggest a close contest. Águilas Doradas has had a mixed recent form with L-W-W-L-W-D, while Independiente Medellin's recent form shows W-W-L-L-L-W. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceÁguilas DoradasDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model46%29%25%
Market38%29%33%
Published40%29%31%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.01.
  • The market prices Águilas Doradas below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Águilas Doradas, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 2.38Now 2.48 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Águilas Doradas2.382.48+0.10
Draw3.183.20+0.02
Independiente Medellin2.992.79-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Águilas Doradas
1.01Independiente Medellin
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (Águilas Doradas / Independiente Medellin)
0.91 / 1.16
Defence rating (Águilas Doradas / Independiente Medellin)
0.87 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 7.3% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 1 11.1% 13.7% 6.3% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.1% 9.1% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 3 4.4% 4.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Águilas Doradas goals. Columns: Independiente Medellin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Águilas Doradas40%2.51
Draw29%3.45
Independiente Medellin31%3.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.00
No50%2.00
Double chance1X (Águilas Doradas or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Independiente Medellin)60%1.66
Handicap -1Águilas Doradas win by 2+24%4.23
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin recent form

Águilas Doradas 3W 1D 2L
Independiente Medellin 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Águilas Doradas at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-6-4
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.39
Goals against / match
1.22
Clean sheets
4 of 18
  • They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 37 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin away

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-7
Win rate
39%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.39
Clean sheets
4 of 18
  • They have won 16 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 37 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Águilas Doradas at home only, Independiente Medellin away only.

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Águilas Doradas 4 · draws 3 · Independiente Medellin 3.

Águilas DoradasDrawsIndependiente Medellin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Independiente Medellin1-2Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2025-10-08Águilas Doradas2-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-03-30Independiente Medellin0-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2024-09-15Águilas Doradas1-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2024-03-03Independiente Medellin1-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2023-08-26Águilas Doradas1-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2023-03-05Independiente Medellin3-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2022-11-23Independiente Medellin2-1Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2022-11-13Águilas Doradas1-0Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2022-08-29Águilas Doradas3-0Independiente MedellinPrimera A

Other Clausura - 19 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Águilas Doradas to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Águilas Doradas
Our pick: Águilas Doradas to win 18+ Bet Now