Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 19

Cucuta vs Jaguares

· Estadio General Santander

Alin prediction Cucuta to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CucutaDrawJaguares
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.82.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cucuta is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Cucuta1.66 Draw4.00 Jaguares7.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.66: -3.5% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 6 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Cucuta vs Jaguares preview

Cucuta faces Jaguares with a 58% probability of winning compared to Jaguares' 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Cucuta's expected goals of 1.93 against Jaguares' 0.82. Cucuta's recent form shows two wins in their last three matches, while Jaguares has struggled, losing four of their last six.

While Cucuta is favored, factors like Jaguares' potential for improvement or an unexpected defensive performance could alter the outcome. The model suggests a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a nearly even 49% for both teams to score, indicating that while Cucuta is likely to dominate, there is still room for surprises in this matchup.

Cucuta vs Jaguares: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCucutaDrawJaguares
Model62%23%14%
Market57%24%19%
Published58%24%18%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Cucuta vs Jaguares odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cucuta, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 1.72Now 1.65 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cucuta1.721.65-0.07
Draw3.583.86+0.28
Jaguares4.454.88+0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cucuta and Jaguares expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Cucuta
0.82Jaguares
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (Cucuta / Jaguares)
0.89 / 0.81
Defence rating (Cucuta / Jaguares)
1.03 / 1.54

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cucuta vs Jaguares score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 4.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1 11.3% 11.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.9% 9.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 7.6% 6.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 5.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Cucuta goals. Columns: Jaguares goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cucuta vs Jaguares goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cucuta vs Jaguares

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cucuta58%1.72
Draw24%4.17
Jaguares18%5.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.08
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Cucuta or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Jaguares)42%2.39
Handicap -1Cucuta win by 2+38%2.60
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Cucuta and Jaguares recent form

Cucuta 3W 0D 3L
Jaguares 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cucuta at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-5-5
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.39
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
6 of 18
  • They have won 10 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 37 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).

Jaguares away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-15
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.22
Clean sheets
0 of 18
  • They have won 8 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 37 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Cucuta at home only, Jaguares away only.

Cucuta vs Jaguares head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Cucuta 3 · draws 3 · Jaguares 2.

CucutaDrawsJaguares
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Jaguares2-0CucutaPrimera A
2025-11-15Jaguares1-2CucutaPrimera B
2025-11-11Cucuta2-2JaguaresPrimera B
2025-09-21Cucuta1-2JaguaresPrimera B
2025-05-01Jaguares1-2CucutaPrimera B
2020-03-10Jaguares0-3CucutaPrimera A
2019-08-17Cucuta1-1JaguaresPrimera A
2019-02-23Jaguares1-1CucutaPrimera A

Other Clausura - 19 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Cucuta to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Cucuta
Our pick: Cucuta to win 18+ Bet Now