Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC preview
In the match between Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Bucaramanga at 78% and Fortaleza FC at 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance. Bucaramanga has an expected goals figure of 2.56, while Fortaleza FC stands at 0.65, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Bucaramanga has recorded a W-D-W-L-L-D in their last six matches, while Fortaleza FC has struggled with L-L-L-D-L-D. Additionally, the probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 62%, and both teams to score is at 45%. If Fortaleza FC can improve their attack, they might challenge Bucaramanga's dominance.
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC: model vs market
| Source | Bucaramanga | Draw | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Bucaramanga / Fortaleza FC)
- 1.39 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Bucaramanga / Fortaleza FC)
- 0.85 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: Fortaleza FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.48 | |
| Fortaleza FC | 7% | 15.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bucaramanga or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortaleza FC) | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win by 2+ | 57% | 1.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC recent form
Bucaramanga
2W 2D 2L
Fortaleza FC
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bucaramanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-10-1
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-9-9
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 6 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, Fortaleza FC away only.
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Bucaramanga 5 · draws 1 · Fortaleza FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Fortaleza FC | 2-1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-11-30 | Fortaleza FC | 0-2 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-11-26 | Bucaramanga | 1-2 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-09-27 | Fortaleza FC | 2-1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-04-14 | Bucaramanga | 4-0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2024-11-10 | Bucaramanga | 1-0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2024-04-22 | Fortaleza FC | 0-2 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2016-08-21 | Fortaleza FC | 1-2 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2016-03-13 | Bucaramanga | 0-0 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior 2026-11-12
- Llaneros v Chico — match page 2026-11-13
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe 2026-11-14
- Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-11-14
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali 2026-11-14
- Cucuta vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Bucaramanga, previous: Jaguares v Bucaramanga analysis
- Fortaleza FC, previous: Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin: odds and pick