Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 19

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

· Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto

Alin prediction Junior to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo PastoDrawJunior
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.04.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Junior is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Deportivo Pasto23.00 Draw8.00 Junior1.14

Price as of

Expected return at 1.14: -15.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 4 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior preview

In the match between Deportivo Pasto and Junior, the 1X2 probabilities show Junior at 46%, compared to Deportivo Pasto's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 11%. Junior's expected goals stand at 1.46, while Deportivo Pasto has 1.04, indicating a potential edge for Junior in scoring.

However, there are factors that could affect this outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 51%, suggesting that Deportivo Pasto could find the net. Additionally, Deportivo Pasto has won 3 of the last 10 encounters against Junior, which shows they can compete effectively. This match has a confidence grade of C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo PastoDrawJunior
Model26%29%46%
Market5%12%83%
Published10%16%74%
Edge+5%+4%-9%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.04.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.14, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Deportivo Pasto and Junior expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.04Deportivo Pasto
1.46Junior
Total expected goals
2.50
Attack rating (Deportivo Pasto / Junior)
0.68 / 1.17
Defence rating (Deportivo Pasto / Junior)
1.27 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.5% 10.8% 8.8% 4.3% 2.2% 1 7.3% 13.7% 9.1% 4.4% 2.2% 2 4.4% 6.5% 4.7% 2.3% 1.2% 3 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Deportivo Pasto goals. Columns: Junior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Pasto10%9.84
Draw16%6.24
Junior74%1.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.19
Under 2.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Deportivo Pasto or draw)26%3.82
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Junior)90%1.11
Handicap -1Junior win by 2+23%4.31
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Deportivo Pasto and Junior recent form

Deportivo Pasto 2W 0D 4L
Junior 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Pasto at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-8
Win rate
42%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.95
Clean sheets
8 of 19
  • They have won 14 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 39 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 39 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Junior away

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-10
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
5 of 21
  • They have won 18 of their 43 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 43 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 43 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 12 of 15 penalties (80%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pasto at home only, Junior away only.

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 3 · draws 3 · Junior 4.

Deportivo PastoDrawsJunior
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Junior4-3Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2025-09-29Junior2-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2025-04-12Deportivo Pasto3-3JuniorPrimera A
2024-08-29Deportivo Pasto1-0JuniorPrimera A
2024-02-08Junior2-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2023-08-13Junior0-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2023-02-19Deportivo Pasto1-0JuniorPrimera A
2022-09-18Deportivo Pasto2-1JuniorPrimera A
2022-03-25Junior1-1Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2021-11-01Junior2-1Deportivo PastoPrimera A

Other Clausura - 19 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Junior to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Junior
Our pick: Junior to win 18+ Bet Now