Junior vs Cucuta preview
In the match between Junior and Cucuta, the 1X2 probabilities show Junior at 49%, Cucuta at 25%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.69 for Junior and 1.14 for Cucuta.
However, Junior's recent form includes 1 win and 5 matches without a win, while Cucuta has 4 wins in their last 6 matches. This could impact the outcome, as Cucuta's momentum may challenge Junior's slight edge in probability. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 57%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%, suggesting a potentially open game.
Junior vs Cucuta: model vs market
| Source | Junior | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.14.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Junior and Cucuta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Junior / Cucuta)
- 1.11 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Junior / Cucuta)
- 1.19 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Junior vs Cucuta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Junior goals. Columns: Cucuta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Junior vs Cucuta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Junior vs Cucuta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Junior | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Cucuta | 19% | 5.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Junior or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Cucuta) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Junior win by 2+ | 27% | 3.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Junior and Cucuta recent form
Junior
1W 4D 1L
Cucuta
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Junior at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-8-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 21
- They have won 17 of their 41 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 41 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 41 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 14 penalties (79%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-11
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 2.11
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Junior at home only, Cucuta away only.
Junior vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Junior 0 · draws 1 · Cucuta 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Cucuta | 1-1 | Junior | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Junior, previous: Llaneros vs Junior prediction
- Cucuta, previous: Cucuta vs Santa Fe: odds and pick