Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios preview
Deportes Tolima faces Millonarios with 39% chances to win compared to 32% for Millonarios. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 8% probability. Deportes Tolima has struggled recently, recording three losses and three draws in their last six matches. Millonarios, on the other hand, has shown better form with two wins and four draws in their last six games.
While the model suggests a low-scoring match, with expected goals of 0.92 for Deportes Tolima and 1.36 for Millonarios, there is a 40% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. If Deportes Tolima can improve their form, they might challenge Millonarios more effectively than predicted.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: model vs market
| Source | Deportes Tolima | Draw | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Deportes Tolima / Millonarios)
- 0.76 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Deportes Tolima / Millonarios)
- 1.04 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportes Tolima goals. Columns: Millonarios goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Millonarios | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportes Tolima or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Millonarios) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win by 2+ | 9% | 11.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios recent form
Deportes Tolima
0W 3D 3L
Millonarios
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportes Tolima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-4
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 1.45
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 20
- They have won 15 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 39 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 39 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
Millonarios away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-7
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.39
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportes Tolima at home only, Millonarios away only.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportes Tolima 1 · draws 0 · Millonarios 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Millonarios | 2-0 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2025-08-17 | Deportes Tolima | 3-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-03-02 | Millonarios | 2-0 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
- Junior vs Cucuta 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Deportes Tolima, previous: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima: odds and pick
- Millonarios, previous: Millonarios – America de Cali, 2026-11-05