Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 19

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima

· Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira

Alin prediction Deportivo Cali to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

19% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo CaliDrawDeportes Tolima
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.50.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Deportivo Cali2.25 Draw3.30 Deportes Tolima3.50

Price as of

Expected return at 2.25: +6.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 6 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima preview

Deportivo Cali faces Deportes Tolima with a 47% chance of winning and a predicted scoreline of 1-0 at 19%. Deportivo Cali has an expected goals figure of 1.58, while Deportes Tolima sits at 0.50. This suggests a strong performance from Deportivo Cali, who have drawn their last three matches.

However, the recent form of Deportes Tolima shows some potential, with two wins in their last six matches. The model indicates a 35% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance for both teams to score. If Deportes Tolima can improve their scoring, they could challenge Deportivo Cali's defense.

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo CaliDrawDeportes Tolima
Model63%26%11%
Market42%30%28%
Published47%29%24%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.50.
  • The market prices Deportivo Cali below our published probability: +5.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Cali, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 2.07Now 2.20 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo Cali2.072.20+0.13
Draw3.053.10+0.05
Deportes Tolima3.823.30-0.52

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Deportivo Cali
0.50Deportes Tolima
Total expected goals
2.08
Attack rating (Deportivo Cali / Deportes Tolima)
1.11 / 1.00
Defence rating (Deportivo Cali / Deportes Tolima)
0.51 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.5% 5.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1 18.7% 10.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 2 15.6% 7.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 3 8.2% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Deportivo Cali goals. Columns: Deportes Tolima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
32%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Cali47%2.11
Draw29%3.45
Deportes Tolima24%4.22
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.90
Under 2.565%1.53
Both teams to scoreYes32%3.09
No68%1.48
Double chance1X (Deportivo Cali or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Deportes Tolima)53%1.90
Handicap -1Deportivo Cali win by 2+35%2.83
Push (exactly one goal)28%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima recent form

Deportivo Cali 2W 4D 0L
Deportes Tolima 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Cali at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-7-1
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.56
Clean sheets
10 of 18
  • They have won 16 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 17 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 37 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportes Tolima away

Record (W-D-L)
5-7-8
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.15
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
5 of 20
  • They have won 17 of their 41 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 41 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 41 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 10 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Cali at home only, Deportes Tolima away only.

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Cali 2 · draws 3 · Deportes Tolima 5.

Deportivo CaliDrawsDeportes Tolima
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Deportes Tolima1-1Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2025-10-25Deportes Tolima2-1Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2025-05-03Deportivo Cali1-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2024-09-08Deportes Tolima1-1Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2024-02-27Deportivo Cali1-2Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2023-11-30Deportivo Cali0-2Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2023-11-25Deportes Tolima4-2Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2023-10-11Deportivo Cali2-0Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2023-02-27Deportes Tolima1-2Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2022-07-15Deportes Tolima2-0Deportivo CaliPrimera A

Other Clausura - 19 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Deportivo Cali to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Deportivo Cali
Our pick: Deportivo Cali to win 18+ Bet Now