Llaneros vs Chico preview
In the Primera A fixture between Llaneros and Chico, the 1X2 probabilities show Llaneros at 53%, while Chico sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. This suggests a close match, but the prediction could be challenged if Chico finds a way to score, as both teams to score has a probability of 49%.
Llaneros has an expected goals figure of 1.47 compared to Chico's 0.97, indicating a stronger attacking potential. However, recent form reveals Llaneros with a mixed record of W-W-L-L-W-L, while Chico has W-L-D-W-L-L. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it possible for Chico to pull off an upset.
Llaneros vs Chico: model vs market
| Source | Llaneros | Draw | Chico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Llaneros vs Chico odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Llaneros, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Llaneros | 1.78 | 1.67 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.60 | +0.18 |
| Chico | 4.46 | 4.90 | +0.44 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Llaneros and Chico expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Llaneros / Chico)
- 0.97 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Llaneros / Chico)
- 1.17 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llaneros vs Chico score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llaneros goals. Columns: Chico goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llaneros vs Chico goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llaneros vs Chico
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Chico | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llaneros or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Chico) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Llaneros win by 2+ | 24% | 4.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Llaneros and Chico recent form
Llaneros
3W 0D 3L
Chico
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Llaneros at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 11 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chico away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-15
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.22
- Goals against / match
- 2.56
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 20 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Llaneros at home only, Chico away only.
Llaneros vs Chico head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Llaneros 3 · draws 3 · Chico 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Chico | 0-1 | Llaneros | Copa Colombia |
| 2026-05-02 | Chico | 3-0 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-07-23 | Llaneros | 2-1 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2025-02-08 | Chico | 2-2 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2022-11-02 | Chico | 3-0 | Llaneros | Primera B |
| 2022-10-18 | Llaneros | 1-0 | Chico | Primera B |
| 2022-10-08 | Chico | 1-1 | Llaneros | Primera B |
| 2022-06-02 | Chico | 2-1 | Llaneros | Primera B |
| 2022-05-17 | Llaneros | 0-0 | Chico | Primera B |
| 2022-02-13 | Llaneros | 1-2 | Chico | Primera B |
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas — match page 2026-11-12
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior 2026-11-12
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe 2026-11-14
- Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-11-14
- Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Llaneros, previous: Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros analysis
- Chico, previous: Chico – Internacional de Bogota, 2026-11-06