Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas preview
Atletico Nacional faces Once Caldas with a 60% probability of winning compared to Once Caldas' 14%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance. Atletico Nacional has an expected goals figure of 1.60, while Once Caldas sits at 0.64.
Recent form shows Atletico Nacional with a record of D-W-W-W-L-W, while Once Caldas has W-D-D-W-W-D. The head-to-head results favor Atletico Nacional, with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 encounters. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals have a 39% probability, which could make predictions less reliable.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Atletico Nacional below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.69 | 2.15 | +0.46 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.40 | -0.36 |
| Once Caldas | 4.54 | 3.16 | -1.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Once Caldas)
- 1.59 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Once Caldas)
- 0.91 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Once Caldas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Once Caldas | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Nacional or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Once Caldas) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 31% | 3.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas recent form
Atletico Nacional
4W 1D 1L
Once Caldas
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 18-3-0
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 2.48
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 21
- They have won 30 of their 43 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 43 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 43 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-12-3
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 19
- They have won 15 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 39 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 39 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Once Caldas away only.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Nacional 5 · draws 3 · Once Caldas 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-10-22 | Atletico Nacional | 2-0 | Once Caldas | Copa Colombia |
| 2025-10-10 | Once Caldas | 0-1 | Atletico Nacional | Copa Colombia |
| 2025-07-12 | Once Caldas | 1-3 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-06-19 | Once Caldas | 1-2 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-06-02 | Atletico Nacional | 0-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-01-26 | Atletico Nacional | 4-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2024-07-27 | Once Caldas | 2-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2024-02-01 | Atletico Nacional | 1-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2023-07-17 | Once Caldas | 1-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior 2026-11-12
- Llaneros v Chico — match page 2026-11-13
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe 2026-11-14
- Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-11-14
- Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Atletico Nacional, previous: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira prediction
- Once Caldas, previous: Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas prediction