Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar preview
In the fixture between Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar, Millonarios has a strong 72% probability to win, while Alianza Valledupar sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Millonarios has an expected goals figure of 2.02, significantly higher than Alianza Valledupar's 0.77.
However, recent form shows Millonarios has struggled with 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Alianza Valledupar has won 2 of their last 5. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it less likely for Millonarios to secure a clean win. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 53%, and both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating potential for a more competitive match than the numbers suggest.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar: model vs market
| Source | Millonarios | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Published | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.77.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Millonarios, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 1.30 | 1.25 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.25 | +0.35 |
| Alianza Valledupar | 9.65 | 11.00 | +1.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Millonarios / Alianza Valledupar)
- 1.15 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Millonarios / Alianza Valledupar)
- 0.90 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millonarios goals. Columns: Alianza Valledupar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 9% | 10.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millonarios or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Valledupar) | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win by 2+ | 42% | 2.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar recent form
Millonarios
1W 4D 1L
Alianza Valledupar
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millonarios at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-7-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.61
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-11
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.72
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 18
- They have won 8 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Millonarios at home only, Alianza Valledupar away only.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Millonarios 5 · draws 2 · Alianza Valledupar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Alianza Valledupar | 2-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-09-13 | Alianza Valledupar | 3-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-03-30 | Millonarios | 2-0 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2024-07-28 | Alianza Valledupar | 2-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-01-31 | Millonarios | 1-1 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2023-10-06 | Alianza Valledupar | 1-2 | Millonarios | Copa Colombia |
| 2023-09-29 | Millonarios | 2-0 | Alianza Valledupar | Copa Colombia |
| 2023-07-29 | Alianza Valledupar | 1-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-05-11 | Millonarios | 3-1 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2022-10-30 | Alianza Valledupar | 2-4 | Millonarios | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior 2026-11-12
- Llaneros v Chico — match page 2026-11-13
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-11-14
- Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali 2026-11-14
- Cucuta vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Millonarios, previous: Deportes Tolima – Millonarios, 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar, previous: Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros analysis