Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira preview
Atletico Nacional faces Deportivo Pereira with a 67% probability of winning, while Deportivo Pereira has only a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. Atletico Nacional has an expected goals figure of 1.87, compared to Deportivo Pereira's 0.58, indicating a strong attacking advantage.
However, the recent form shows Atletico Nacional with mixed results, having won 3 of their last 6 matches, while Deportivo Pereira has 2 wins in their last 6. Additionally, in their last 3 encounters, Deportivo Pereira has won 2 times. This could influence the outcome, making it possible for Deportivo Pereira to exceed expectations.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| Published | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Edge | -3% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportivo Pereira)
- 1.42 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportivo Pereira)
- 0.74 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Deportivo Pereira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.58 | |
| Deportivo Pereira | 7% | 14.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Nacional or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pereira) | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira recent form
Atletico Nacional
4W 1D 1L
Deportivo Pereira
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 17-3-0
- Win rate
- 85%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.45
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 20
- They have won 29 of their 41 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 41 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 41 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pereira away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-8-9
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.61
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 18
- They have won 4 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Deportivo Pereira away only.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Nacional 1 · draws 0 · Deportivo Pereira 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-07-23 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-02-10 | Atletico Nacional | 3-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Chico v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-11-06
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Atletico Nacional, previous: Bucaramanga v Atletico Nacional analysis
- Deportivo Pereira, previous: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima: odds and pick