Jaguares vs Bucaramanga preview
In the fixture between Jaguares and Bucaramanga, the 1X2 probabilities show Bucaramanga at 45%, while Jaguares sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals indicate Jaguares at 1.24 and Bucaramanga at 1.63, suggesting Bucaramanga may have the upper hand.
The model also predicts a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, recent form shows Jaguares with a record of L-W-L-L-W-L and Bucaramanga at W-L-L-D-D-W, which could impact the outcome. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga: model vs market
| Source | Jaguares | Draw | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Published | 25% | 27% | 47% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.24.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Jaguares and Bucaramanga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Jaguares / Bucaramanga)
- 0.94 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Jaguares / Bucaramanga)
- 1.35 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jaguares goals. Columns: Bucaramanga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jaguares vs Bucaramanga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 25% | 3.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Bucaramanga | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jaguares or draw) | 53% | 1.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Bucaramanga) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win by 2+ | 23% | 4.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Jaguares and Bucaramanga recent form
Jaguares
2W 0D 4L
Bucaramanga
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jaguares at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-6
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.39
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Bucaramanga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-7
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jaguares at home only, Bucaramanga away only.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Jaguares 0 · draws 1 · Bucaramanga 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bucaramanga | 2-2 | Jaguares | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-11-07
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-11-07
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali 2026-11-08
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios 2026-11-08
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page 2026-11-09
- Junior vs Cucuta 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Jaguares, previous: Deportivo Pasto – Jaguares, 2026-11-03
- Bucaramanga, previous: Bucaramanga v Atletico Nacional analysis