Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares preview
In the fixture between Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Pasto at 55%, with a likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Deportivo Pasto has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.19 compared to Jaguares' 1.02.
However, recent form could challenge this prediction. Deportivo Pasto has recorded 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Jaguares has also struggled with 2 wins in their last 6. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 46%, indicating a possibility that either side could find the net. These factors could affect the outcome, making it less straightforward than the probabilities suggest.
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Pasto | Draw | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Pasto, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 1.67 | 1.65 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.72 | -0.03 |
| Jaguares | 4.90 | 5.14 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Deportivo Pasto / Jaguares)
- 0.62 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Deportivo Pasto / Jaguares)
- 1.10 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Pasto goals. Columns: Jaguares goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pasto | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Jaguares | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Pasto or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Jaguares) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Pasto win by 2+ | 17% | 5.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares recent form
Deportivo Pasto
1W 1D 4L
Jaguares
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Pasto at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-8
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jaguares away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-14
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.24
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pasto at home only, Jaguares away only.
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 6 · draws 2 · Jaguares 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Jaguares | 2-3 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2024-08-03 | Jaguares | 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2024-02-05 | Deportivo Pasto | 1-1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2023-10-20 | Jaguares | 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2023-09-09 | Deportivo Pasto | 1-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2023-05-08 | Deportivo Pasto | 4-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2023-03-28 | Jaguares | 0-1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2022-09-05 | Deportivo Pasto | 2-1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2022-07-16 | Jaguares | 0-1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2022-03-09 | Jaguares | 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-11-01
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-11-02
- Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional 2026-11-03
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe 2026-11-04
- Millonarios vs America de Cali 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Pasto, previous: Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto analysis
- Deportivo Pasto, next: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto: odds and pick
- Jaguares, previous: Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares analysis
- Jaguares, next: Jaguares v Bucaramanga analysis