Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC Prediction & Betting Tips 02/11/2026

Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Águilas Doradas	Draw	Fortaleza FC
Model	52%	27%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	52%	27%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.97.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Águilas Doradas and Fortaleza FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Águilas Doradas

0.97Fortaleza FC

Total expected goals: 2.62
Attack rating (Águilas Doradas / Fortaleza FC): 0.99 / 0.92
Defence rating (Águilas Doradas / Fortaleza FC): 1.06 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 5.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1 10.8% 12.8% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.9% 9.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 5.5% 5.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 3.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Águilas Doradas goals. Columns: Fortaleza FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Águilas Doradas	52%	1.91
	Draw	27%	3.73
	Fortaleza FC	21%	4.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.05
	Under 2.5	51%	1.95
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.95
	No	49%	2.06
Double chance	1X (Águilas Doradas or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Fortaleza FC)	48%	2.10
Handicap -1	Águilas Doradas win by 2+	29%	3.46
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Águilas Doradas and Fortaleza FC recent form

Águilas Doradas 2W 2D 2L

Fortaleza FC 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Águilas Doradas at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-6-4
Win rate: 41%
Goals for / match: 1.41
Goals against / match: 1.29
Clean sheets: 3 of 17

They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 34 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).

Fortaleza FC away

Record (W-D-L): 0-9-7
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.94
Goals against / match: 1.69
Clean sheets: 3 of 16

They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Águilas Doradas at home only, Fortaleza FC away only.

Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Águilas Doradas 0 · draws 1 · Fortaleza FC 2.

0% 33% 67%

Águilas DoradasDrawsFortaleza FC

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-19	Fortaleza FC	2-0	Águilas Doradas	Primera A
2025-08-04	Águilas Doradas	2-2	Fortaleza FC	Primera A
2025-02-18	Fortaleza FC	2-1	Águilas Doradas	Primera A

Other Clausura - 17 fixtures

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Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-11-01
Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Cucuta vs Santa Fe 2026-11-02

Before and after this match

Águilas Doradas, previous: Cucuta – Águilas Doradas, 2026-10-27
Fortaleza FC, previous: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC: odds and pick

Prediction snapshot Águilas Doradas to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Águilas Doradas