Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar preview
Independiente Medellin faces Alianza Valledupar with a 50% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 26% and Alianza Valledupar at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 1.72 for Independiente Medellin and 1.12 for Alianza Valledupar.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, and there is a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Recent form shows Independiente Medellin struggling with L-L-W-L-D-L, while Alianza Valledupar has a mixed record of W-W-D-L-W-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar: model vs market
| Source | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.12.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Independiente Medellin / Alianza Valledupar)
- 0.99 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Independiente Medellin / Alianza Valledupar)
- 1.17 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente Medellin goals. Columns: Alianza Valledupar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente Medellin or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Valledupar) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar recent form
Independiente Medellin
1W 1D 4L
Alianza Valledupar
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente Medellin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-7
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.39
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente Medellin at home only, Alianza Valledupar away only.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Independiente Medellin 1 · draws 2 · Alianza Valledupar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Alianza Valledupar | 0-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2025-07-13 | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2025-01-27 | Alianza Valledupar | 1-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page 2026-10-31
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-11-02
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe 2026-11-02
- Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Independiente Medellin, previous: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin prediction
- Alianza Valledupar, previous: Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-10-28