Cucuta vs Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Cucuta | Draw | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cucuta and Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Cucuta / Santa Fe)
- 1.07 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Cucuta / Santa Fe)
- 1.08 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cucuta vs Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cucuta goals. Columns: Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cucuta vs Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cucuta vs Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cucuta | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Santa Fe | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cucuta or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Santa Fe) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cucuta win by 2+ | 17% | 5.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cucuta and Santa Fe recent form
Cucuta
4W 0D 2L
Santa Fe
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cucuta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-8-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cucuta at home only, Santa Fe away only.
Cucuta vs Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cucuta 0 · draws 0 · Santa Fe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Fe | 5-0 | Cucuta | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page 2026-10-31
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-11-01
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Cucuta, previous: Cucuta – Águilas Doradas, 2026-10-27
- Santa Fe, previous: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: odds and pick