Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar preview
Once Caldas hosts Alianza Valledupar with a 60% chance of winning compared to 16% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Once Caldas's expected goals of 1.87 against Alianza Valledupar's 0.89. The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 51%, indicating potential for multiple goals.
Recent form shows Once Caldas with 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Alianza Valledupar has 3 wins and 2 losses. The head-to-head record reveals that Once Caldas has not won in their last 3 encounters, with 2 draws and 1 loss. This context could impact the match outcome, despite the statistical favoring of Once Caldas.
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar: model vs market
| Source | Once Caldas | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.88.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Once Caldas / Alianza Valledupar)
- 0.97 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Once Caldas / Alianza Valledupar)
- 0.89 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Once Caldas goals. Columns: Alianza Valledupar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 16% | 6.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Once Caldas or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Valledupar) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Once Caldas win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar recent form
Once Caldas
2W 2D 2L
Alianza Valledupar
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Once Caldas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Once Caldas at home only, Alianza Valledupar away only.
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Once Caldas 0 · draws 2 · Alianza Valledupar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Alianza Valledupar | 1-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-08-15 | Alianza Valledupar | 0-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-03-02 | Once Caldas | 1-2 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
- Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-27
- Chico vs Junior — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin 2026-10-29
- America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe — match page 2026-10-30
- Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares — match page 2026-10-30
- Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Once Caldas, previous: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira prediction
- Alianza Valledupar, previous: Alianza Valledupar v Internacional de Bogota analysis