Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira preview
Once Caldas has a 67% chance to win against Deportivo Pereira, who has a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 17% probability. Once Caldas has an expected goals figure of 1.41, while Deportivo Pereira sits at 0.66.
While the data favors a low-scoring match, with only a 34% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score, factors like recent form could influence the outcome. Once Caldas has drawn and won in their last few matches, while Deportivo Pereira's recent results include more draws and losses. This could lead to a different result than predicted.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira: model vs market
| Source | Once Caldas | Draw | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 10% |
| Published | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Once Caldas, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 1.27 | 1.30 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 5.05 | -0.25 |
| Deportivo Pereira | 9.75 | 9.00 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Once Caldas / Deportivo Pereira)
- 0.97 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Once Caldas / Deportivo Pereira)
- 0.89 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Once Caldas goals. Columns: Deportivo Pereira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Deportivo Pereira | 12% | 8.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Once Caldas or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pereira) | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Once Caldas win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira recent form
Once Caldas
2W 2D 2L
Deportivo Pereira
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Once Caldas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pereira away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-7-9
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.65
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 3 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Once Caldas at home only, Deportivo Pereira away only.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Once Caldas 5 · draws 3 · Deportivo Pereira 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Deportivo Pereira | 0-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-09-06 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-08-03 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-03-22 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-02-20 | Once Caldas | 3-1 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2024-09-03 | Deportivo Pereira | 0-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2024-02-23 | Once Caldas | 1-2 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2023-09-10 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-2 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2023-08-13 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2023-03-25 | Once Caldas | 1-1 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page 2026-10-23
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
- America de Cali vs Cucuta 2026-10-24
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Jaguares vs Llaneros 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Once Caldas, previous: Millonarios vs Once Caldas: odds and pick
- Once Caldas, next: Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-10-28
- Deportivo Pereira, previous: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico prediction
- Deportivo Pereira, next: Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares analysis