America de Cali vs Cucuta preview
In the match between America de Cali and Cucuta, the 1X2 probabilities show America de Cali at 59%, while Cucuta sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. America de Cali has an expected goals figure of 1.79, compared to Cucuta's 0.84, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are at 49%, suggesting a potential for a low-scoring affair. America de Cali's recent form shows mixed results with D-L-W-W-D-L, while Cucuta has been more consistent with W-W-W-L-L-D. This contrast in form could influence the outcome, making it essential to consider both teams' performances leading into this fixture.
America de Cali vs Cucuta: model vs market
| Source | America de Cali | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.83.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
America de Cali vs Cucuta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on America de Cali, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 1.30 | 1.33 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Cucuta | 8.93 | 8.50 | -0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
America de Cali and Cucuta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (America de Cali / Cucuta)
- 1.22 / 1.07
- Defence rating (America de Cali / Cucuta)
- 0.78 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
America de Cali vs Cucuta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: America de Cali goals. Columns: Cucuta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
America de Cali vs Cucuta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for America de Cali vs Cucuta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Cucuta | 13% | 7.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (America de Cali or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Cucuta) | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | America de Cali win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
America de Cali and Cucuta recent form
America de Cali
2W 2D 2L
Cucuta
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
America de Cali at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-2
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.53
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: America de Cali at home only, Cucuta away only.
America de Cali vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: America de Cali 0 · draws 0 · Cucuta 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cucuta | 2-0 | America de Cali | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page 2026-10-23
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-10-25
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Jaguares vs Llaneros 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- America de Cali, previous: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali prediction
- America de Cali, next: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC: odds and pick
- Cucuta, previous: Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional: odds and pick
- Cucuta, next: Cucuta – Águilas Doradas, 2026-10-27