Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali preview
In the match between Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a 21% chance for Fortaleza FC to win, a 32% chance for a draw, and a 47% chance for Deportivo Cali to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% probability, reflecting Deportivo Cali's stronger expected goals of 1.28 compared to Fortaleza FC's 0.77.
While both teams to score has a 40% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 34%, the recent form shows Fortaleza FC struggling with 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Deportivo Cali has won 4 of their last 6 games, which could influence the outcome differently than predicted.
Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali: model vs market
| Source | Fortaleza FC | Draw | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 29% | 55% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 17% | 29% | 55% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Fortaleza FC / Deportivo Cali)
- 0.95 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Fortaleza FC / Deportivo Cali)
- 1.23 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortaleza FC goals. Columns: Deportivo Cali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza FC | 17% | 6.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Deportivo Cali | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortaleza FC or draw) | 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Cali) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Cali win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali recent form
Fortaleza FC
0W 4D 2L
Deportivo Cali
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortaleza FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-5
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Deportivo Cali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza FC at home only, Deportivo Cali away only.
Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fortaleza FC 1 · draws 2 · Deportivo Cali 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Deportivo Cali | 1-1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-07-25 | Deportivo Cali | 1-1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-02-09 | Fortaleza FC | 1-0 | Deportivo Cali | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page 2026-10-23
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
- America de Cali vs Cucuta 2026-10-24
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-10-25
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Jaguares vs Llaneros 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Fortaleza FC, previous: Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC analysis
- Fortaleza FC, next: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC: odds and pick
- Deportivo Cali, previous: Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali prediction