Chico vs Bucaramanga preview
In the upcoming match between Chico and Bucaramanga, the 1X2 probabilities show Bucaramanga at 47%, compared to Chico's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with an 11% chance. Bucaramanga's recent form is stronger, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Chico has only 2 wins in the same period.
Both teams to score has a probability of 51%, indicating a balanced attacking potential. However, Chico's expected goals stand at 1.03, which is lower than Bucaramanga's 1.50. If Chico can improve their scoring, they could challenge Bucaramanga's recent dominance.
Chico vs Bucaramanga: model vs market
| Source | Chico | Draw | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chico and Bucaramanga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Chico / Bucaramanga)
- 0.81 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Chico / Bucaramanga)
- 1.10 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chico vs Bucaramanga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chico goals. Columns: Bucaramanga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chico vs Bucaramanga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chico vs Bucaramanga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 25% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Bucaramanga | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chico or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Bucaramanga) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Chico and Bucaramanga recent form
Chico
2W 1D 3L
Bucaramanga
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 31 matches.
Bucaramanga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chico at home only, Bucaramanga away only.
Chico vs Bucaramanga head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Chico 1 · draws 1 · Bucaramanga 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Bucaramanga | 5-0 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2025-07-12 | Bucaramanga | 1-1 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2025-01-24 | Chico | 1-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Chico, previous: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico prediction
- Bucaramanga, previous: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali prediction