Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto preview
Deportes Tolima faces Deportivo Pasto with a 50% chance of winning compared to Pasto's 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Deportes Tolima's expected goals of 1.36 against Deportivo Pasto's 0.75.
While the probabilities suggest a win for Deportes Tolima, recent form shows they have struggled, with 5 matches without a win. Deportivo Pasto has had mixed results lately, with 2 wins in their last 5 games. The potential for both teams to score stands at 41%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 35%, indicating that low-scoring games could be expected.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto: model vs market
| Source | Deportes Tolima | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 29% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 14% |
| Published | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.61.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportes Tolima, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 1.44 | 1.45 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.06 | 4.10 | +0.04 |
| Deportivo Pasto | 6.91 | 6.84 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Deportes Tolima / Deportivo Pasto)
- 0.85 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Deportes Tolima / Deportivo Pasto)
- 1.09 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportes Tolima goals. Columns: Deportivo Pasto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 14% | 7.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.77 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportes Tolima or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pasto) | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win by 2+ | 29% | 3.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto recent form
Deportes Tolima
0W 4D 2L
Deportivo Pasto
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportes Tolima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-3
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 19
- They have won 15 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pasto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportes Tolima at home only, Deportivo Pasto away only.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Deportes Tolima 3 · draws 0 · Deportivo Pasto 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Deportivo Pasto | 0-2 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2026-05-09 | Deportes Tolima | 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2026-04-11 | Deportivo Pasto | 1-0 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2025-07-12 | Deportivo Pasto | 3-2 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2025-01-28 | Deportes Tolima | 2-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page 2026-10-23
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
- America de Cali vs Cucuta 2026-10-24
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-10-25
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-10-25
- Jaguares vs Llaneros 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Deportes Tolima, previous: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima: odds and pick
- Deportivo Pasto, previous: Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto analysis
- Deportivo Pasto, next: Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto analysis