Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota preview
In the Primera A fixture, Alianza Valledupar has a 43% chance to win against Internacional de Bogota, who have a 32% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.76 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.48 for Internacional de Bogota.
Both teams to score stands at 65%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 63%. However, Alianza Valledupar's recent form shows they have drawn and lost in their last two matches, which could impact their performance. Internacional de Bogota has struggled with three draws and two losses in their last five games, indicating they may also find it challenging to secure a win.
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Internacional de Bogota |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Valledupar, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 2.25 | 2.37 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.15 | +0.03 |
| Internacional de Bogota | 3.13 | 3.00 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Alianza Valledupar / Internacional de Bogota)
- 1.00 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Alianza Valledupar / Internacional de Bogota)
- 1.38 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Valledupar goals. Columns: Internacional de Bogota goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Internacional de Bogota | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Valledupar or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Internacional de Bogota) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Valledupar win by 2+ | 20% | 4.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota recent form
Alianza Valledupar
3W 1D 2L
Internacional de Bogota
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Valledupar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-8-6
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional de Bogota away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-9-7
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Valledupar at home only, Internacional de Bogota away only.
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Alianza Valledupar 2 · draws 0 · Internacional de Bogota 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Internacional de Bogota | 2-1 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2025-10-24 | Alianza Valledupar | 2-0 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-05-03 | Internacional de Bogota | 0-2 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page 2026-10-23
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
- America de Cali vs Cucuta 2026-10-24
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-10-25
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Jaguares vs Llaneros 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Alianza Valledupar, previous: Deportivo Pasto – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-10-20
- Alianza Valledupar, next: Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar, 2026-10-28
- Internacional de Bogota, previous: Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC analysis
- Internacional de Bogota, next: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin prediction